Alabama vs. Georgia odds, prediction, betting trends for College Football Playoff championship

No. 1 Alabama meets No. 3 Georgia in the college football championship game.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be televised on ESPN.

Alabama (13-1) is looking to win its seventh national championship with coach Nick Saban. Crimson Tide is in the CFP championship game for the sixth time in eight years, and Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young leads an offense that ranks third in the FBS with 41.4 points per game. The Crimson Tide defeated No. 4 Cincinnati 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl.

Georgia (13-1) reaffirmed its defensive dominance in a 34-11 victory over Michigan in the Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs lead the FBS in scoring defense with 9.6 points per game. Stetson Bennett led a great offensive play, and coach Kirby Smart will have another chance to face Alabama on the big stage. The Bulldogs are favorites by 2.5 points.

It’s a rematch of the SEC championship game, which Alabama won 41-24. It’s also a rematch of the 2017 CFP championship, which Crimson Tide won 26-23 in overtime.

Will the Bulldogs change the script or will Crimson Tide rack up another national championship? Here is everything you need to know to bet on the CFP championship between Alabama and Georgia:

Alabama vs. Georgia odds

  • Spread: Georgia -2.5
  • Below: 52.5
  • Money line: Georgia -142, Alabama +116

Three trends to know

– Alabama has won seven straight games against Georgia, a streak dating back to 2008. This is the fifth straight top-five meeting among programs.

– The Crimson Tide is 8-6 ATS margin this season. Alabama was an underdog for the first time since October 31, 2015, in the SEC championship game showdown against Georgia. The Crimson Tide is 2-0 ATS in games with spreads of less than 14 points this season. Georgia is 9-5 ATS this season, but is 5-1 when the difference is less than 20 points.

– The underdog is 6-1 ATS in those last seven games. A closer look at those results:

2021 * No. 4 Alabama 41 No. 1 Georgia 24 UGA -6.5
2020 No. 2 Alabama 41 No. 3 Georgia 24 ALA-4
2018 * No. 1 Alabama 35 No. 4 Georgia 28 ALA-14
2017 ** No. 4 Alabama 26 No. 3 Georgia 23 AAL -3.5
2015. No. 13 Alabama 38 No. 8 Georgia 10 UGA-2.5
2012 * No. 2 Alabama 32 No. 3 Georgia 28 AAL -7.5
2008 No. 8 Alabama 41 No. 3 Georgia 30 UGA-7

Three things to see

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– Bennett silenced the critics for at least a week, passing for 313 yards and three touchdowns in 34-11 against Michigan. The Bulldogs quarterback completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 304.5 yards in the last two meetings against Alabama, but that comes with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Bennett’s favorite target in the last game was tight end Brock Bowers, who had 10 receptions for 139 yards. Alabama cornerback Josh Jobe is out for the season, and Jalyn Armor-Davis left the semifinal against Cincinnati with a hip injury. Will those Alabama high school injuries lead to more efficiency for Bennett?

– John Metchie III is also out of Alabama after suffering a torn ACL in the SEC championship game. Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien favored a career-long attack in the CFP semifinal against Cincinnati, and All-American receiver Jameson Williams took on more of a possession role with seven catches for 62 yards. Ja’Corey Brooks and Slade Bolden caught TD passes, and tight end Jahleel Billingsley could be a sleeping target in this matchup.

– Given the injuries in the secondary, Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding could add to the pressure with linebackers Will Anderson Jr. and Christian Harris. They combined for 11 tackles in the first game and Anderson had a sack. Georgia, meanwhile, had no sack in the first match. All-Americans Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean responded with dominant performances in the semifinal matchup against Michigan, and they will need to make a bigger impact to stop Young in the rematch.

Statistics that matter

The longest play in the first meeting was 15 yards. Which team supports their quarterback the most with a running game? James Cook led Georgia with 38 rushing yards in the first meeting. That is not enough to beat Alabama. He had 112 receiving yards in the semifinal against Michigan and could be used in that role again to isolate Alabama’s linebackers. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson had 26 carries for 204 yards against Cincinnati. Robinson kept the Bulldogs honest with 16 carries for 55 yards in the SEC championship game, but Alabama will have to do a better job running the ball in this game.

Alabama vs Georgia betting tips

This won’t be a blast like last time. Georgia regained her rhythm on both sides of the ball, and Alabama has depth to overcome injuries on both sides of the ball. Look to Georgia to get back a quick lead, like they did in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs could even lead at halftime. Then Young, the Heisman winner, throws a quick punch at Williams that kicks off the rally, and Alabama once again breaks the hearts of Georgia fans. The Crimson Tide wins a seventh national championship with Nick Saban.

Alabama 28, Georgia 24