Steelers vs. Chiefs odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL wild-card playoff game

When the Steelers play the Chiefs in matchup No. 7 vs. No. 2 in the AFC wild-card playoffs on Sunday night (8:15 pm ET, NBC), they will look to extend the career of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, Kansas City will be looking to begin its run to a third straight conference championship and a Super Bowl appearance.

Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh got the necessary byes to make the playoffs in Week 18, including losing Batlimore in overtime. Kansas City lost the No. 1 seed by falling to Cincinnati in Week 17.

While Roethlisberger and his offense have been limited in scoring points despite some good skill position talent, Mahomes and Chiefs have gotten their groove back by diversifying and balancing their offense, including more of the running game.

Here you will find everything you need to know about betting on Steelers vs. Chiefs in the 2022 NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends, and our wild-card game prediction.

Steelers odds vs. Chiefs for the NFL playoff game

  • Spread: Bosses for 12.5
  • Below: 46
  • money: Steelers +500, Bosses -700

(bet odds per FanDuel bookmaker)

The Chiefs have been double-digit favorites from the starting lines, as they’re also the team to beat in the AFC again heading into Super Bowl 56. The Steelers still haven’t impressed much offensively in the past two weeks. There’s also Roethlsiberger’s recent wild-card slump against the Browns last year and a big loss at Kansas City in the regular season.

All-time series Steelers vs. chiefs

Even though the Chiefs beat the Steelers 36-10 in Week 16, the Steelers still hold a commanding 23-13 overall lead in 36 games. The Chiefs have won two in a row, both with Mahomes, since they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in 2018, 42-37. Before Mahomes, the Steelers had won three in a row and six of seven.

Three Trends to Know

—73 percent of bettors believe the Steelers will cover the spread given the big cushion the Chiefs have been given, despite a decisive Week 16 loss in recent memory.

—When it comes to total points, bettors are split 50-50 on whether the Steelers and Chiefs can score more or less than it takes.

—The Steelers are 5-5 against the spread and 5-4-1 outright in their last 10 games with the total going over half of those games, five. The Chiefs are 6-4 ATS while going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with six of those games coming.

three things to see

Pittsburgh, even with excellent rookie running back Najee Harris, finished 29th in rushing offense, averaging just 93.1 yards per game. Kansas City gave up 117.6 on average, which was just 21. The Steelers rushed for 130 yards in the first meeting. They need to build on that to better solve Big Ben this time.

The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been passing points everywhere down the field to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce lately. But that doesn’t mean Mahomes isn’t playing well and much better than he did at the beginning of the season. He’s protecting the ball and being patient on big plays, involving more running backs and receivers. This makes it even more dangerous, with higher reward and lower risk.

These are the two longest-tenured AFC coaches this side of Bill Belichick. They’ve both won Super Bowls and been to others and know how to train this time of year. Reid’s record has been better of late, but Tomlin did a great job just getting his team back in the tournament. The Chiefs need to make sure they don’t open the door by not stepping on the gas hard enough because the Steelers should do everything they can to play with the house money.

Statistics that matter

That’s the average rushing yards the Steelers allowed during the regular season. That was terrible, worst in the league at No. 32. Consider that no other team ranked in the bottom 10 made the playoffs. Kansas City, with the most runs in the second half, moved up to No. 16 in rushing offense (115 yards per game). The Chiefs racked up 127 yards with their committee over the Steelers in Week 16. That led to a pristine, hyper-efficient game from Mahomes.

Steelers vs Chiefs Prediction

The Steelers don’t belong in this game because they’re totally outclassed. It’s nice that they have TJ Watt in their pass rush, but it’s hard to think they can stop the Chiefs from doing what they want offensively again. It’s tough to get past Mahomes with a limited downfield passing game and the Chiefs’ defense has taken advantage of less offensive opponents. Look for Big Ben to take a beating in his last game for Pittsburgh, with Kansas City making a strong opening statement before the divisional round.